Analyst says 2025's GTA 6 and Nintendo Switch 2 combo is almost unprecedented: "I don't remember a year like this where so much of what's going to happen is focused on just two products"
Dec. 9, 2024“My expectation for the year is going to be determined by if and when new Nintendo hardware and Grand Theft Auto 6 show up and how successful they are”
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Veteran games analystMat Piscatella of Circanahas called GTA 6possibly the most important thing “to ever release in the industry,“so in a recent interview, as Rockstar’s long-awaited open-world monolith slowly approaches, I was keen to dig into the idea of this rising tide lifting all boats. Much of our conversation revolved around the one-two punch ofGTA 6and the still-unnamedNintendo Switch 2, the software and hardware releases poised to define the next year in gaming, if not beyond.
“My expectation for the year is going to be determined by if and when new Nintendo hardware and Grand Theft Auto 6 show up and how successful they are,” Piscatella says of the year ahead. “Those two things are going to basically determine how good or bad next year is from a market look. I’m expecting both will show up next year and be relatively successful. So I’m anticipating we start seeing growth next year, but if one misses the year, or if one doesn’t deliver on expectations, it could be a much tougher look.”
After a year ofsevere layoffs, industry-widecontractionand consolidation, someexpensive and high-profile misses, persistentinvestment drought, slowing console sales, andflattening sales for subslike Game Pass, GTA 6 and the Switch 2 could give games as a whole a much-needed boost. But what does that actually look like beyond the nebulous idea of more money? What are the ripple effects of a new Nintendo system or a new GTA?
Hopefully the industry doesn’t become so conservative that we just get the same games all the time
In an ideal world, Piscatella reasons, the tangible benefit for other folks in the industry, while Rockstar and Nintendo may be swimming in Scrooge McDuck tubs of money, would be an uptick in investment opportunities. This could translate to more and, at a less reticent and risk-averse time, more experimental games getting made.
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Those layoffs have immediately impacted thousands of game developers, but the broader industry may not feel the effects of them until “years down the road,” Piscatella says.
“It’s really tough to kind of look forward that way,” he explains. “I mean, what we’re seeing right now is because engagement is so concentrated in just a few of these super games, these black hole evergreen games.” Almost like a chant, he points to the “Minecraft, Fortnite, Roblox” behemoth ecosystems.
“Publishers have gotten more conservative. Risk-taking has been pulled back a bit. But we have best-case 3-year, worst-case 10-year development cycles now for some of these games. So what’s happening now, you’re looking years down the road before you see the impact of it.
“And hopefully the industry doesn’t become so conservative that we just get the same games all the time. Because, as we’ve seen, you get enough of the same type of game in the market and folks just aren’t interested. So that’s the thing, and revitalizing and re-energizing development is a big thing that hopefully we start seeing again beginning next year.”
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