Oscars 2024 predictions: who will win Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting awards?
Jan. 25, 2024A look ahead to the favorites, outsiders, and possible shocks at this year’s Academy Awards
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The Oscars are almost here and the internet is abuzz with speculation about who will be taking home the top prizes at the 96th Academy Awards.
Ahead of Sunday’s event, we’ve run the rule over the major categories. Below, we’ve run through historical trends, industry chatter, and (in some tight races) pure old-fashioned gut feelings in an attempt to predict who will win Best Picture, Best Director, and the main acting awards.
Oppenheimermay be leading the way with 13 nominations, but should we be expecting a clean sweep or will the likes ofPoor Things,The Holdovers, andBarbiereign triumphant?
Best Picture
The nominees
Christopher Nolan’sOppenheimer– one half of the all-conquering ‘Barbenheimer’ double-bill – was a tour de force upon its release, proving wildly popular with both critics and audiences alike.
The biopic of Robert J. Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb played so astutely by Cillian Murphy, has received nods all throughout the Oscars' main categories this year and feels like the sort of rare prestige heavyweight movie event that the Academy loves so much.
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Its nearest rival appears to be Poor Things, which has been picking up steam (and awards aplenty) in awards season. Still, this is Oppenheimer’s to lose – and we aren’t expecting shock wins for The Holdovers, Barbie, or even Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon – a film that was among the early frontrunners for Best Picture.
The nominees
One statistic is very telling when it comes to this category: Almost 75% of historical Best Picture winners have also seen their director pick up the award for Best Director on the same night.
On historical trends alone,Christopher Nolanshould win Best Director for the first time. Of course, a shock can always be sprung and, in Scorsese, Triet, Glazer, and Lanthimos, this is potentially the strongest lineup we’ve seen in years – with each filmmaker delivering modern classics from a range of subject matters, all in their own inimitable style.
The nominees
Cillian Murphyhas been touted as the strong favorite for Best Actor and we don’t disagree. For one, the Academy often laps up biopics or those playing historical figures (seeBohemian Rhapsodyfor evidence of that). But it’s also this year’s standout performance: a deft portrayal of a man caught at a crossroads of history, one who is stripped of honor and dignity in the most humiliating of circumstances. Murphy has also been mopping up awards, including at the Golden Globes, which helps his chances plenty.
Pour one out, then, for The Holdovers' Paul Giamatti. His turn as Mr. Hunham has been slowly picking up momentum in wider circles lately. Its unfortunately staggered release (arriving in January in the UK) might count against it, however.
Bradley Cooper, Colman Domingo, and Jeffrey Wright each delivered – in our estimations – career-best performances, or close to it. In another year, they might have prevailed.
The nominees
Probably the closest big-name race is the one for Best Actress. Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone are neck and neck among some bookmakers when it comes to who will be taking home the gong.
So,Lily Gladstoneand her delicate, yet fierce, portrayal of Mollie Burkhart will likely win on the night. It’s well worth it, too: the performance has been talked about for almost a year now and has all the hallmarks of a career-defining role that should get the nod from the Academy.
The nominees
Another strong clutch of actors and, yet, there’s only one name everyone is talking about.
Robert Downey Jr.is surely set to take home his first Oscar for his role as the vindictive, career-driven Lewis Strauss. Much like last year with Ke Huy Quan’s win, this could be an early sign that Oppenheimer is set to sweep the board on the night itself, though the other actors in the category should be commended – especially Mark Ruffalo and Robert De Niro.
Ruffalo shows he can do pretty much anything asked of him on the screen, while De Niro proves age is but a number by still operating at the peak of his powers in a deliciously evil, oily performance in Killers of the Flower Moon. Still, expect RDJ to get that Oscar.
The nominees
With apologies to Emily Blunt’s outrageously talented forehead vein in Oppenheimer, this award is pretty much all wrapped up forDa’Vine Joy Randolphto take home on the night. Her touching performance as cook Mary in The Holdovers contains an unshakeable depth that has caught the attention of several awards bodies already this season. America Ferrera’s Barbie monologue was among the most memorable of last year, but we can’t see that performance troubling the winners come Oscars night. Randolph is, by some distance, one of the leading lights and locked-in favorites for this year’s Academy Awards.
Take a look ahead to this year’s biggest films with ourmovie release datescalendar too.
I’m the Senior Entertainment Writer here at GamesRadar+, focusing on news, features, and interviews with some of the biggest names in film and TV. On-site, you’ll find me marveling at Marvel and providing analysis and room temperature takes on the newest films, Star Wars and, of course, anime. Outside of GR, I love getting lost in a good 100-hour JRPG, Warzone, and kicking back on the (virtual) field with Football Manager. My work has also been featured in OPM, FourFourTwo, and Game Revolution.
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